Honestly, in that moment Oswald probably would have rather Ed had stabbed or shot him than said that. With that look on his face.

Since their war, Oswald had found it difficult to trust his gut and it had taken him time to return to a place where he could. It had arguably made him more trigger-happy for a time, easier to rile, more dangerous to be around. Any sniff of suspicious behaviour in the crime ranks was dealt with swiftly and if Oswald's paranoia was later proven to be unfounded... Oh well. It sent the right message: don't do anything to even give Oswald Cobblepot the fleeting impression the you weren't entirely in line with him.

But this is a different side to that coin--this is something in his gut that is telling him something is true without a shadow of a doubt. He doesn't need to see the contract. He doesn't need to talk to Victor. He doesn't need to do anything because Ed is an awful liar. And what he as just said is not only entirely in earnest, but it's revealed something about Oswald in that moment.

The real one.

The fear Oswald feels cannot be compared to anything else: nothing is like the terror of being seen, especially not after everything that's happened.

Somewhere, he'd pushed the chair back abruptly and gotten to his feet, backed away from the table and left the unfinished meal with a clatter of cutlery.

Oh no. Oh no.

Anyone would be able to see that Oswald, virtually powered by pure animal-brain, is about to bolt.